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Science Forum Index » Geology - Earthquakes Forum » I Just Predicted Another Quake
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| Skywise |
 Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 1:45 am |
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"Steve" <philhendrie@aol.com> wrote in news:1171090622.403032.211030
@h3g2000cwc.googlegroups.com:
Quote: On Feb 9, 10:31 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Backing out of the challenge already? Sheesh.
Brian
No my challenge is always open for anyone worthy of a duo.
But nice try anyway.
Steve
Worthy of a "duo"?
Yeah...I'll let you back out of your own challenge. You're
tucking tail since you realize I'd kick your butt in only
a week.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Skywise |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 1:45 am |
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| Skywise |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 1:45 am |
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| Steve |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:02 am |
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On Feb 10, 8:51 pm, "mirage" <mjohnso...@earthlink.net> wrote:
Quote: I don't mind admitting I can't read your charts. I'm not a
seismologist (although I don't know if that should matter). I
definitely "need someone to show me how". Since it's your chart, I'd
appreciate if you could help me through it.
WOW! Quite a questionaire .. hope I pass lol.
No problem. My charts are no different than any stock plot software ie
BIGCHARTS.COM. Big quakes push the bars up, small down. Absent quakes
even further down. I've made them as simple as possible. On occasion
I'll mark purple trendlines on them:
The diagonal (purple) lines point to areas of stress release. If they
form "stress pockets" (the roundish area below plot "knees") then the
stress released will increase.
Release Potential Increases as:
* THE MORE ORGANIZED THE STRESS POCKET FORMS
* THE MORE ORGANIZED THE DIAGONAL BUILDS (W/MULTIPLE KNEES)
* THE DEEPER THE DIAGONAL ANGLE IS
* THE LONGER THE DIAGONAL ANGLE GROWS
During DOWN cycles, the opposite occurs. Here, these lines point to
areas of stress buildup, not release.
The same principle tends to apply equally faithful with stocks, or any
other random data.
These lines may not be included in current chart due to the lack of
time.
Larger than avg quakes will occur where the plot reaches the orange
zones. The deeper the shade or orange toward deep red indicates
intensity.
Quote:
I'm looking at your chart athttp://www.angelfire.com/planet/three/earthquakes/ca.bmp
As I write, the date and time of the last bar is Feb 10, 15:00 UTC.
At the upper right I see a USGS California/Nevada quake map. On the
upper left there's a green background. It says 'Mag of last bar: 2",
"Mag avg: 2.7", and "Strongest mag: 4.3". Then there's a jaggy curve
called Overview(The Big Picture) which apparently has missing data at
its left end. Below is another jaggy curve that's plotted against
blue vertical horizontal and vertical axes, and overlaid with some
purple and yellow lines. Toward the right there's a five-sided orange
box. The horizontal axis is labeled "2 hours/bar".
1. How do you calculate an average magnitude?
The computer does it automatically by adding all the mags and dividing
the total by the number of bars. I can then bump this value up or down
if I want to give me several ways of approaching an accurate forecast.
Bumping it up, forces the chart down and vice-versa.
When you say "mag avg"
Quote: do you mean the average of all previously calculated bars? Of all
quakes over some period of time?
Exactly. I think over the last 100 bars.
Quote: 2. What's a 'bar'? On the jaggy graph there are yellow dots, which
are connected by vertical gray lines. Are the bars the yellow dots or
the gray lines?
Each black line and dot you see is ONE bar.
Quote: 3. What does a bar represent? Is it an average of the magnitudes of
all quakes in ca/nev occuring in the preceding two hours? Something
else?
Each bar is a time increment .. which is labeled under each plot.
Several quakes can occur in each bar's worth of time. The largest
quake gets registered. If I widen the time frequency to 24 hours, for
instance, only the largest quake during that day counts .. I also have
the option to accumulate the seismic activity over that period and
divide by 24 hours for an average. (My software is very flexible ..
for added freedom). Built the programs myself using FREEBASIC (which
is quite powerful actually and very user friendly .. unlike C++ for
instance).
Quote: 4. Why are you concerned about the missing data in the 'big picture'
graph? When will you have enough data points to the right of the
missing data that you can do whatever you want to do. I note that
even though you are missing data, it hasn't prevented you from
predicting earthquakes. So, what would the missing data add to your
ability to predict quakes?
In order for me to project the next top, I need the next bottom and
vice versa. So I need at least enough data to ensure a previous bottom
or top. The more data the more assured I am of my forecast.
Quote: 5. How would I (or you) know that the graphs are indicating an
incipient earthquake. How would I determine the magnitude and
location of the coming quake as you seem to be able to do.
Pinpointing epicenters will be quite easily actually. "If" (huge if
because big quakes happen so infrequently) I eventually hire a team of
plotters, I will create a overlapping vector matrix's with both time
and location. So for instance if AREA A indicates a quake but AREA B
looks very calm, I keep shifting AREA B all over AREA A until AREA B
comes alive - that's precisely where the quake will hit. I can also do
this with time. IF TIME A makes the chart dead, I use TIME B with a
step size say of 2 bars (it skips every second hour) it is possible to
nail the time to minutes. Of course if I had minute data, this
wouldn't be necessary.
I actually am vectoring northern california already. AREA A is all of
california. AREA B is just the northern half. If A SAYS "QUAKE" and B
says NO QUAKE, it will occur in the southern half. Fun stuff.
Quote: 6. What are the units of measurement and scale on the two blue axes
on the lower graph? Is the vertical axis showing magnitude and the
horizontal axis showing time? Shouldn't you label them?
The current seismic cycle ends where the two blue lines meet .. at
least this is the designated end.
To know where the current cycle ends is "the" baby. It's extremely
tough, but I'm getting better as
I upgrade a few forecast tools I use.
Quote: 7. Assuming that the trend, (apparently) shown by the yellow line in
the bottom graph, reaches the blue horizontal line someday, what does
it mean/what do you think would happen? What does the descending
trend mean?
The yellow line is the CTL (central trend line). Usually (not always)
the plot bounces off this line ..
quite dramatically. It usually passes through the plot restng on the
TOPS OF DIPS and the BOTTOMS OF PEAKS.
Quote: 8. What's the big orange box represent? If the curve enters the box,
what's that mean?
BOOM! A quake.
Quote: Is the likelihood of a major quake greater or
lesser? Or does it relate to something else?
Major quakes can ONLY occur near the beginning of short range up
cycles or when the plot is currently trending WAY below the CTL.
That's right, only TWO zones. That's one big benefit of my charts.
Provided I've got my bearings right, I can say with 100% confidence
that it is 100% IMPOSSIBLE for any large quakes to occur at any other
time! Try to find anyone can say this. It will put your mind at ease
knowing that for instance, right now until early next week NOTHING big
will occur in Northern California. It is 100% impossible. Who else
will know this without my forecasts.
Quote: 9. Are we supposed to use any of the data on the USGS map to help
understand the data in your graphs?
Good point. I will (as I often do, post a link).
Quote:
I also remember seeing an earlier version of your chart that had an
ellipse in the upper left quadrant of the page. How are we to
interpret an ellipse?
Sometimes I highlight strange anomolies such as NEAR PERFECT elipses
in perfectly raw data.
Quote:
Thank you for helping me understand this. I, for one, am interested
in understanding your ideas, but find, as my questions show, it hard
to understand the material you're presenting. Any help is
appreciated.
Regards, mirage
Glad to help and congratulations on side-stepping all the dung spots
made by the local yokos unscathed. I have to rethread my forecasts for
this reason, but their posts only attract more onlookers who google
stuff. |
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| Steve |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:04 am |
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On Feb 10, 10:02 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: "Steve" <philhend...@aol.com> wrote in news:1171098514.022692.98810
@v33g2000cwv.googlegroups.com:
Post withdrawn in six days .. acted like a true troll.
What do you mean, "withdrawn"? How many times do we have to tell
you, you can't cancel your messages. It's like pissing in the
ocean.
Brian
Google provides a auto post "withdraw in six days" function. Ask your
bro Bob. |
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| Steve |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:05 am |
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On Feb 10, 10:02 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: "Steve" <philhend...@aol.com> wrote in news:1171090622.403032.211030
@h3g2000cwc.googlegroups.com:
On Feb 9, 10:31 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Backing out of the challenge already? Sheesh.
Brian
No my challenge is always open for anyone worthy of a duo.
But nice try anyway.
Steve
Worthy of a "duo"?
Yeah...I'll let you back out of your own challenge. You're
tucking tail since you realize I'd kick your butt in only
a week.
Brian
Brian after you sober up, try me again. |
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| Steve |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 3:59 am |
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On Feb 10, 8:51 pm, "mirage" <mjohnso...@earthlink.net> wrote:
Quote: I don't mind admitting I can't read your charts. I'm not a
seismologist (although I don't know if that should matter). I
definitely "need someone to show me how". Since it's your chart, I'd
appreciate if you could help me through it.
Wow, quite the questionaire! Hope I pass.
First I have a headache so I'm gonna get through this as fast as
possible. So please ignore the errors.
My charts are no different than any stock plot software ie
BIGCHARTS.COM. Big quakes push the plot up, small, down. Absent quakes
even further down. I tried to make them as simple as possible.
..
..
On occasion I'll insert purple trendlines:
The diagonal (purple) lines point to areas of stress release. If they
form "stress pockets" (the roundish area below plot "knees") then the
stress released will increase.
Release Potential Increases as:
* THE MORE ORGANIZED THE STRESS POCKET FORMS
* THE MORE ORGANIZED THE DIAGONAL BUILDS (W/MULTIPLE KNEES)
* THE DEEPER THE DIAGONAL ANGLE IS
* THE LONGER THE DIAGONAL ANGLE GROWS
During DOWN cycles, the opposite occurs. Here, these lines point to
areas of stress buildup, not release. The same principle tends to
apply equally faithful with stocks, or any other random data.
These lines may not be included in current chart due to the lack of
time.
Larger than avg quakes will occur where the plot reaches the orange
zones. The deeper the shade or orange toward deep red indicates
intensity.
Quote:
I'm looking at your chart athttp://www.angelfire.com/planet/three/earthquakes/ca.bmp
As I write, the date and time of the last bar is Feb 10, 15:00 UTC.
At the upper right I see a USGS California/Nevada quake map. On the
upper left there's a green background. It says 'Mag of last bar: 2",
"Mag avg: 2.7", and "Strongest mag: 4.3". Then there's a jaggy curve
called Overview(The Big Picture) which apparently has missing data at
its left end. Below is another jaggy curve that's plotted against
blue vertical horizontal and vertical axes, and overlaid with some
purple and yellow lines. Toward the right there's a five-sided orange
box. The horizontal axis is labeled "2 hours/bar".
1. How do you calculate an average magnitude?
The computer calculates this average automatically by adding all the
mags and dividing the total by the number of bars. I can then bump
this value up or down if I want to tweak the chart to produce an
accurate forecast. Bumping it up, forces the chart down and vice-
versa.
Quote: When you say "mag avg"
do you mean the average of all previously calculated bars? Of all
quakes over some period of time?
Exactly. I think over the last 100 bars.
Quote: 2. What's a 'bar'? On the jaggy graph there are yellow dots, which
are connected by vertical gray lines. Are the bars the yellow dots or
the gray lines?
Each black line and dot you see is ONE bar.
Quote: 3. What does a bar represent? Is it an average of the magnitudes of
all quakes in ca/nev occuring in the preceding two hours? Something
else?
Each bar is a time increment. This amount is labeled under each chart.
Several quakes can occur in each bar's worth of time. Just the largest
quake registers. If I widen the time frequency to 24 hours, for
instance, only the largest quake during that day gets displayed. I
created an option to use the "average" value over each time interval
too. My software is very flexible .. for added freedom. I've built
these programs using FREEBASIC (quite a powerful, very user friendly
programming language .. unlike C++ for instance which I absolutely
hate).
Quote: 4. Why are you concerned about the missing data in the 'big picture'
graph? When will you have enough data points to the right of the
missing data that you can do whatever you want to do. I note that
even though you are missing data, it hasn't prevented you from
predicting earthquakes. So, what would the missing data add to your
ability to predict quakes?
In order to project the next top, I need the PREVIOUS bottom and vice
versa. So I need at least enough data to ensure a previous bottom or
top. The more data the more assured I am of my forecast.
Quote: 5. How would I (or you) know that the graphs are indicating an
incipient earthquake. How would I determine the magnitude and
location of the coming quake as you seem to be able to do.
Pinpointing epicenters CAN be achieved quite easily using a location
vector matrix. Only TWO area blocks will do. Let's say AREA A
forecasts a quake and AREA B forecasts no quake. You could just shift
AREA B all over AREA A until it also forecasts a quake. That's where
it will occur. You can do this with time too. TIME A says a quake will
occur. If I set TIME B bar step size to two (skipping every other bar)
and a quake registers, it will occur somewhere at an alternate bar.
You'd simply keep shifting the step size until a single bar is
vectored to be THE incident bar.
I currently do not juggle charts like this, lacking time. One could
also forecast the time down to the exact MINUTE if minutely seismic
data were provided by USGS. Hourly intervals is as tight as can get my
forecasts at this time.
Quote: 6. What are the units of measurement and scale on the two blue axes
on the lower graph? Is the vertical axis showing magnitude and the
horizontal axis showing time? Shouldn't you label them?
The x axis (horz line) is TIME axis. y axis magnitude. No need to
label the x axis since the bar frequence is labeled. I have a time
grid option, but just don't use it. The time and date of the last bar
of data is labeled for a bearing on when the current seismic cycle
ends.
As for the magnitude grid, it is irrelevent since it would only
indicate the accumulate magnitude of which is of no use. The magnitude
of the largest, last bar, and average over the last 100 bars, is
labeled to provide a scale of how much quakes move the chart up and
down.
Quote: 7. Assuming that the trend, (apparently) shown by the yellow line in
the bottom graph, reaches the blue horizontal line someday, what does
it mean/what do you think would happen? What does the descending
trend mean?
The end of the current cycle is forecast to end precisely where the
two blue lines meet. This is the backbone of the operation and THE
key. Once this projection is correct, the rest of the forecast is
easy.
Quote: 8. What's the big orange box represent? If the curve enters the box,
what's that mean? Is the likelihood of a major quake greater or
lesser? Or does it relate to something else?
These are danger zones. Once the plot reaches a danger zone I forecast
a quake. The deeper red, the bigger the quake is forecast.
Quote: 9. Are we supposed to use any of the data on the USGS map to help
understand the data in your graphs?
Good point. I try to include the USGS links.
Quote:
I also remember seeing an earlier version of your chart that had an
ellipse in the upper left quadrant of the page. How are we to
interpret an ellipse?
Pure random does some amazing things like form half circles. I just
used an ellipse once to point the half circle.
Quote:
Thank you for helping me understand this. I, for one, am interested
in understanding your ideas, but find, as my questions show, it hard
to understand the material you're presenting. Any help is
appreciated.
Regards, mirage
Hope this helps.
Thanks for the friendly response. It's refreshing. Congratulations on
side-stepping all the dung posts made by the local yokos unscathed. I
have to rethread my forecasts for this reason, but their posts only
attract more onlookers who google stuff and they're fun and funny. |
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| Skywise |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 4:57 am |
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"Steve" <philhendrie@aol.com> wrote in news:1171177440.446447.174320
@q2g2000cwa.googlegroups.com:
Quote: On Feb 10, 10:02 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
"Steve" <philhend...@aol.com> wrote in news:1171098514.022692.98810
@v33g2000cwv.googlegroups.com:
Post withdrawn in six days .. acted like a true troll.
What do you mean, "withdrawn"? How many times do we have to tell
you, you can't cancel your messages. It's like pissing in the
ocean.
Brian
Google provides a auto post "withdraw in six days" function. Ask your
bro Bob.
So? It'll disappear from Google. That's all. It won't disappear
from anywhere else. It'll still be on mine (and others) servers.
And after it disappears from there (only due to retirement due
to retention), it will still be on mine (and perhaps others)
hard drives.
Like I said, pissing in the ocean.
BTW, Google is only a web based gateway to usenet. Go look up
'usenet' on wikipedia and learn something useful.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Skywise |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 4:58 am |
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"Steve" <philhendrie@aol.com> wrote in news:1171177524.769881.165320
@a34g2000cwb.googlegroups.com:
Quote: On Feb 10, 10:02 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
"Steve" <philhend...@aol.com> wrote in news:1171090622.403032.211030
@h3g2000cwc.googlegroups.com:
On Feb 9, 10:31 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Backing out of the challenge already? Sheesh.
Brian
No my challenge is always open for anyone worthy of a duo.
But nice try anyway.
Steve
Worthy of a "duo"?
Yeah...I'll let you back out of your own challenge. You're
tucking tail since you realize I'd kick your butt in only
a week.
Brian
Brian after you sober up, try me again.
Sober up? I've got news for you. I don't drink alcohol. I like
to keep my brain cells healthy, thank you very much.
So your next excuse is........
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Steve |
| Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2007 5:22 pm |
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On Feb 11, 12:57 am, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: BTW, Google is only a web based gateway to usenet. Go look up
'usenet' on wikipedia and learn something useful.
Brian
Didn't say it wasn't. You ever get one thing right? You any relation
to Bob Officer?
Google is a gateway to usenet. Why the ONLY? Google is extremely
popular, learn something.
Steve |
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| Skywise |
| Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 12:36 am |
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"Steve" <philhendrie@aol.com> wrote in news:1171228979.295853.83880
@v45g2000cwv.googlegroups.com:
Quote: On Feb 11, 12:57 am, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
BTW, Google is only a web based gateway to usenet. Go look up
'usenet' on wikipedia and learn something useful.
Brian
Didn't say it wasn't. You ever get one thing right? You any relation
to Bob Officer?
Google is a gateway to usenet. Why the ONLY? Google is extremely
popular, learn something.
Google groups is usenet for dummies. Plain and simple. Not that
there is anything wrong with making something easy for everyone
to use. The problem is that Google makes no effective effort to
educate it's users as to just what it is they are accessing.
Thus, most of those who use Google Groups think they are on some
web forum like Yahoo groups or some such. They don't realize
they are actually using usenet. Therefore, they make a bunch of
silly mistakes that a little 5 minute education would solve.
Mistakes like thinking they can cancel a post on usenet.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:13 am |
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On Sun, 11 Feb 2007 06:02:34 -0000, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Skywise
<into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: "Steve" <philhendrie@aol.com> wrote in news:1171098514.022692.98810
@v33g2000cwv.googlegroups.com:
Post withdrawn in six days .. acted like a true troll.
What do you mean, "withdrawn"? How many times do we have to tell
you, you can't cancel your messages. It's like pissing in the
ocean.
He thinks because someone uses XNA headers, it makes some sort of
difference.
All it means is some people are not going to provide free content for
someone else to sell...
Google is a piss poor way to access usenet. and franking the latest
stats show 70% of all abuse in text groups comes from come from
google posters.
I would be far more worried about the double and triple posts...
--
Ak'toh'di |
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:21 am |
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On Sun, 11 Feb 2007 06:02:30 -0000, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Skywise
<into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: ellis@no.spam () wrote in news:1171095611.249569@no.spam:
In article <12sqkh42fpvtlcd@corp.supernews.com>,
Skywise <into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Define "bars"
A place the kook spends lots of time at?
Except those in bars make a hell of a lot more sense, and
don't have meltdowns.
The idiot this the current and past quakes are an indicators of
future quakes. All past quakes show is a certain fault can store
enough energy to slip at a certain point.
One can say parts of the SA fault system can store enough energy to
create a 7.2 quake... other parts seem to slip/break after enough
energy is stored to create a 2.0... and even that isn't always
true... there are enough ancillary faults that can store energy.
The only two things I think might be right to say:
1) Past quakes are not indicators of future quakes.
2) Not all quakes have the same driving mechanism.
and
3) most people do not want to give fudge proof predictions.
--
Ak'toh'di |
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| Skywise |
| Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:24 am |
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Bob Officer <bobofficers@127.0.0.7> wrote in
news:5otvs2t9u841gss82ulfht02cl64r9ggoc@4ax.com:
Quote: Google is a piss poor way to access usenet. and franking the latest
stats show 70% of all abuse in text groups comes from come from
google posters.
I agree. The only thing it has going for it is the searchability
and statistics of it's archive.
Quote: I would be far more worried about the double and triple posts...
I do know that Google originated messages cross posted to more
than 3 groups will get blocked by my NSP.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes? |
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| Bob Officer |
| Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:42 am |
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On Mon, 12 Feb 2007 05:24:16 -0000, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Skywise
<into@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
Quote: Bob Officer <bobofficers@127.0.0.7> wrote in
news:5otvs2t9u841gss82ulfht02cl64r9ggoc@4ax.com:
Google is a piss poor way to access usenet. and franking the latest
stats show 70% of all abuse in text groups comes from come from
google posters.
I agree. The only thing it has going for it is the searchability
and statistics of it's archive.
I would be far more worried about the double and triple posts...
I do know that Google originated messages cross posted to more
than 3 groups will get blocked by my NSP.
Heh, They are still doing that?
Like that isn't really having much of an effect is it?
I left, under less than happy conditions... They really were not
suiting my needs anymore...
(usenet politics were involved...)
It wasn't a forgery, I forged nothing. Their software goofed.
--
Ak'toh'di |
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