 |
|
| Science Forum Index » Economy Forum » Your ideas on doing economic theory that can give real predi |
|
Page 1 of 1 |
|
| Author |
Message |
| Guest |
 Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2005 12:25 pm |
|
|
|
|
How would you start on the research programme to make economic models
that could accurately predict economic variables?
I'll start off the discussion by saying you need a model of asset
markets and how they affect the economy. What philosophy of knowledge
would you use, what methodology.
The economy is basically about making valuable what is not valuable in
itself. This value adding process creates growth and employment.
Different industries genreate different amounts of value added.
Can we answer general policy questions with a model/models?
What is the outlook for the UK economy? |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| Phil Scott |
| Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2005 2:54 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
<highflite1977@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1132939506.158080.210470@g49g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
[quote:6fa8078828]How would you start on the research programme to make
economic models
that could accurately predict economic variables?
[/quote:6fa8078828]
I would study the long term cycle of nations, 5 or 6
generations, described by the russian economist of the early
last century, Kondratiev sometime spelled Kondratief. and
elaborated on by Ravi Batra (professor economics at Harvard U)
'The comming depression 1990'.
A person needs to get past a short term business cycle view of
economics to really understand it.... those operating the
major central banks have. they pray on those who only look
at the short term cycles.
[quote:6fa8078828]
I'll start off the discussion by saying you need a model of
asset
markets and how they affect the economy. What philosophy of
knowledge
would you use, what methodology.
[/quote:6fa8078828]
When an entire nation collapses (happens like clockwork)
asset models most often become useless. The presumption that
one already knows what the issues are, blinds a person to the
larger over riding issues.
Beyond the cycle of nations are the cycles of life on the
earth... climate change etc. thats happening fast now.
Those are long term factors, perhaps 15 to 50 years out... but
some affecting a wide range economies now, storms in the gulf
for instance due to warmer water.
[quote:6fa8078828]The economy is basically about making valuable what is not
valuable in
itself. This value adding process creates growth and
employment.
Different industries genreate different amounts of value
added.
[/quote:6fa8078828]
That both true, and insufficient to describe the larger
situation.
[quote:6fa8078828]
Can we answer general policy questions with a model/models?
[/quote:6fa8078828]
Not to any great degree lacking the broader views
mentioned.
[quote:6fa8078828]
What is the outlook for the UK economy?
[/quote:6fa8078828]
Triumph motorcycle manufacturing is doing well.. and is on
the right track. Study that.
Otherwise with china and india coming onto the high end
markets, engineering etc. and the UK's aging work force (same
issue in most of the developed world)..its in trouble. Learn
how to live inexpensively, or become an international
entrepreneur...with some exceptions.
Phil Scott
> |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
| zzbunker |
| Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 12:39 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
highflite1977@gmail.com wrote:
[quote:7bbda1aa0c]How would you start on the research programme to make economic models
that could accurately predict economic variables?
[/quote:7bbda1aa0c]
First you a programm that predicts physical variables,
such as weather, traffic patterns.
[quote:7bbda1aa0c]
I'll start off the discussion by saying you need a model of asset
markets and how they affect the economy. What philosophy of knowledge
would you use, what methodology.
[/quote:7bbda1aa0c]
For assets, you need a government that's not going to tax
you to death, before your buisnees gets started.
So you need your governments laws, concerning your assets.
[quote:7bbda1aa0c]The economy is basically about making valuable what is not valuable in
itself. This value adding process creates growth and employment.
Different industries genreate different amounts of value added.
Can we answer general policy questions with a model/models?
What is the outlook for the UK economy?
[/quote:7bbda1aa0c]
The UK economy has been controlled by
The Beatles for so long now, you' d have to ask them. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
|
All times are GMT - 5 Hours
The time now is Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:15 pm
|
|