| |
 |
|
|
Religion Forum Index » Mormon Forum » Polls: Obama or McCain Is Winning...
Page 1 of 1
|
| Author |
Message |
| Jake Horn... |
 Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:25 pm |
|
|
|
Guest
|
Two months ago I argued in these pages that Barack Obama will not win this
year's presidential election. My prediction was based on essential factors
about Obama himself -- his inexperience, his tax-and-spend liberalism, his
history of race consciousness -- that make him an unacceptable choice to
lead the nation in this time of difficult foreign and domestic challenges.
I remain convinced that, on Election Day, most American voters will refuse
to pull the lever for a candidate who falls so far outside the political and
cultural mainstream of the country.
While hardly a compelling candidate himself, John McCain offers the American
people more experience, a proven track record of legislative and diplomatic
leadership (albeit one that does not lack controversy), and an unquestioned
history of patriotism and service to the country. These qualities matter
greatly to voters. McCain said it well at the end of this week's town hall
debate: "When times are tough, we need a steady hand at the tiller, and the
great honor of my life was to always put my country first." This is a
winning message. Despite running a mostly lackluster campaign, McCain
remains the better candidate to serve as the next President of the United
States.
Ever since I wrote my anti-Obama piece, I have received numerous emails from
Republicans and Democrats alike, asking whether I still think Obama will
lose the election. Yes, I do. But what about the polls, they ask? The
polls show that Obama is winning. No, they don't, as I will explain.
But let me note, first, that the widespread, and indeed intentional,
misreporting about what the polls allegedly show is one of the most
frustrating -- and ultimately harmful -- aspects of the presidential
campaign season. Why harmful? Because if the supporters of Barack Obama,
which include the mainstream media, most of the intelligentsia, and almost
all black Americans, believe that their candidate is "winning" the race, but
then he loses on Election Day, they are very likely to conclude that the
election was "stolen." It will be what we saw in 2000, only worse, because
of the intense emotional investment that so many people have in Obama's
candidacy. Whether or not, as some irresponsible commentators have
suggested, there will be violence in the streets if Obama loses, it will be
deeply damaging to the nation's social fabric for John McCain's election to
be challenged from the start as illegitimate.
Now to the polls. There are three basic reasons to be skeptical about the
validity and accuracy of polls: First, there is the well-known problem of
bias that results from how polls are worded. Second, the raw data for the
polls almost always is "adjusted" by the pollsters to give more weight to
the Democratic responses. And third, the results of the polls almost always
are within the reported "margin of error." The first two issues would
require a detailed analysis that is beyond the scope of this article. But
the third issue clearly proves my point that Obama is not "winning" the
race.
As illustrations, let's look at three national polls, taken from the Real
Clear Politics website: the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from October
4-5; the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll from October 7; and the Rasmussen poll
from October 8.
According to the NBC/WSJ poll, Obama is leading McCain among registered
voters nationwide by a margin of 49% to 43% (these figures combine those who
said they supported and were leaning towards the respective candidates). So
Obama is winning, right? Not so fast. The reported margin of error for the
poll is +/- 3.8 points. The "margin of error" is simply the amount of
potential error in a poll's results. This means that the results of the
poll actually could be McCain 46.8% and Obama 45.2%. Very close, but with
McCain ahead. The poll also includes 8% of respondents who said they were
undecided. These undecided voters might decide to vote for McCain.
Certainly there is no reason to assume they will vote for Obama. In short,
this poll does not show that Obama is winning. At most it shows that Obama
might be winning. On the other hand, it also shows that McCain might be
winning.
Similarly, the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll shows Obama leading McCain among
likely voters nationwide by a margin on 47.7% to 45.3%, with 7% undecided.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.8 points. Based on the data from
this poll, therefore, McCain could be leading Obama by a margin of 48.1% to
44.9%. If the undecided voters decide to support McCain, the eventual
margin of victory could be even larger. Again, this poll does not
necessarily show that Obama is winning. Indeed, the pollsters correctly
noted that "[t]he race for President of the United States remains far too
close to call."
Lastly, the Rasmussen poll shows that Obama is leading McCain among likely
voters nationwide by a margin of 51% to 45%, with 4% undecided. The margin
of error for this poll is +/- 2 points. A-ha! Obama definitely is winning
according to this poll (that is, assuming the undecided voters do not
"break" for McCain). But there is something curious about this poll, which
relates to the second issue I raised above about polls. This poll
"weighted" its responses to reflect a predicted voting population of 39.3%
Democrats, 33.3% Republicans, and 27.4% unaffiliated. However, in the last
presidential election, just four years ago, the party affiliation of actual
voters (according to the CNN exit poll) was 37% Democrat and 37% Republican.
Perhaps Democrats are going to "out vote" Republicans by 6 points this year,
but I think this is a very dubious assumption. In any event, there is no
reason to accept the results of the Rasmussen poll over those of the other
two polls (or over the results of many other polls I could have examined).
Before concluding, let's look at a typical poll of the races in two
important "battleground" states. This poll was done by CNN/Time on October
7 (also taken from RCP). According to this poll, Obama is leading McCain in
Ohio, 50% to 47%, and in Wisconsin, 51% to 46%. The headline for the poll:
"New Obama gains in battleground states." Yet the margin of error for the
poll was +/- 3.5 points. This means that, based on the results of the
CNN/Time poll itself, McCain could be leading in Ohio by a margin of 50.5%
to 46.5% and in Wisconsin by a margin of 49.5% to 47.5%.
Of course, in the past several weeks there have been polls showing McCain
leading the race nationally and in the battleground states. Are the results
of such polls simply to be disregarded? On what grounds? Why should the
polls that show Obama in the lead be given more weight than the polls that
show McCain in the lead? Such reporting reflects the bias of the mainstream
media, not the "truth" about how the American people are going to vote this
November. Moreover, the idea - implicit in the daily fluctuations of the
polls - that large numbers of American voters are regularly switching back
and forth between McCain and Obama makes no sense. Who knows any real
people who are going through such mental and political gymnastics?
In short, the polls do not show that Obama is "winning" the race, anymore
than they show that McCain is "winning" the race. What they show is that
the contest is very close, and will not be decided until election day --
when the American people actually go to the polls and cast their votes.
For the reasons I've stated before, I predict that more votes will be cast
for McCain than for Obama.
Steven M. Warshawsky is an attorney in New York City.
--
Change is not a destination just as hope is not a strategy.
- Jake |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
| |
|
Page 1 of 1
All times are GMT - 5 Hours
The time now is Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:32 am
|
|