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| Religion Forum Index » Christian Orthodox Forum » Alarmist's Warming Predictions Wrong, Again... |
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| aggreen... |
 Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2009 6:35 pm |
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Alarmist's Warming Predictions Wrong, Again
By Dr. Michael S. Coffman Ph. D.
November 15, 2009
NewsWithViews.com
You may remember newspaper headlines and TV news stories last spring that
the Arctic Ice Cap would likely disappear in 2008 for the first time in
recorded history. The entire global warming community was abuzz with
excitement and waited with bated breath for the certain event to occur. They
were salivating in the blogosphere at the prospect of having another
bombshell to drop on the world when the ice would disappear in the Arctic.
However, like an increasing number of their doom and gloom prophecies, they
were wrong. It never happened.
The Arctic Ice Cap has been gradually retreating every year since 1979 when
satellite technology could finally measure it accurately. By the winters of
2005 and 2006, the Arctic Ice Cap had retreated by almost 23 percent from
1979. Then, in 2007, the bottom fell out. The Arctic Ice Cap retreated by
over 50 percent (down to 2.85 million square miles) from 1979. This led to
the wild predictions that 2008 would see the Arctic Ice Cap disappear
altogether.
Unquestionably, the retreating ice cap did not follow the alarmists'
predictions for 2008. It retreated to 4.52 million square miles, which is
9.5 percent less than the record retreat of 2007. That is not great
improvement, and one year does not make a trend. Yet the ice started
reforming in early September 2008, weeks before it did in 2007, and reformed
at a much faster rate during September and October than even the 1979-2000
average. The same is occurring in 2009. By the end of September 2009, the
re-growth of the polar ice greatly exceeded that of 2008. If you recall,
during October-November 2008, snow piled up to 8 feet deep in the Midwest
and snow fell on London for the first time in decades. This was followed by
approximately 8 inches of snow falling on December 11 in Southern Louisiana
and Mississippi - the earliest and the most snow on record. Blizzards
unheard of for decades swept across the northern plains in December, and
Europe had record snowfalls.
The Arctic is not the only place that was showing signs of intensifying
cold. While the Arctic Ice Cap showed record retreat in 2007, the Antarctic
showed record growth of sea ice, called extent, surrounding the continent
the same year. Even the volcanically active Antarctic Peninsula was nearly
completely ice-bound. The 2008 ice extent was nearly the same as the 2007
record. 2009 is heading for another record ice extent. The ice also lasted
longer than usual into the spring of 2007, which starts in September. That
year, the cruise ship Explorer struck submerged ice just off the northwest
tip of the Antarctic Peninsula on November 23, long after the point in the
year when the larger icebergs have typically melted. While none of the 156
passengers and crew were injured, it represented yet another sign of a
cooling earth.
As most readers understand, the earth has not warmed statistically since
1998 and, in truth, began cooling in 2001. It cooled dramatically in 2007
and early 2008, but warmed slightly early in 2009 and then cooled again
during the summer. This variability illustrates the difficult nature of
climate forecasting. If the warming continues, then the cooling since 2001
is merely a perturbation in the relentless increase in earth's temperature
resulting from unsustainable human use of fossil fuel. That is what the
global warming alarmists would have us believe. Their rhetoric has become
increasingly shrill this past year as prediction after prediction has proven
false. That the temperature has begun to warm in early 2009, they claim,
merely proves their point. However, as the earth began to cool again during
the summer of 2009, these alarmists were once again mute.
In spite of the told-you-so proclamations of late-year warming by the
alarmists, 2008 was still the coldest since 2000. Unbiased observers are
beginning to ask why it is that the alarmists claim that every change in the
weather, even earthquakes, is caused by global warming. If the earth warms
to near record levels in one year, as occurred in 2005, alarmists claim it
is proof of global warming. If the earth cools and it snows in places that
have not seen snow for several decades, this too is somehow caused by global
warming. Alarmists cannot have it both ways. Global cooling cannot be caused
by man-caused global warming. Yet, that is exactly what the alarmists are
trying to convince us is happening - so far they have been successful!
The theory of man-caused global warming is also incongruent with the fact
that the earth cooled while CO2 continued to increase between 1935 and 1975.
As a result, there is a very poor statistical correlation between CO2 and
temperature from 1905 to 1995. The statistical correlation between CO2 and
temperature since 1998 is even worse; it is near zero. Likewise, when it
snowed in places that have not seen snow in decades, as has repeatedly
occurred in 2007 and 2008, the phenomenon is not likely caused by global
warming. While such inconsistencies do not faze alarmists, more rational
people are increasingly questioning the theory of greenhouse-caused global
warming.
No one, not even the alarmists, knows what is going to happen in the months
and years ahead. However, an increasing number of scientists are saying man
is not responsible for the warming during the last half of the twentieth
century. Over 31,000 scientists in the U.S. signed a petition in May of 2008
affirming that "there is no convincing scientific evidence that human
release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or
will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's
atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate." Over 9,000 of these
scientists have Ph.D.s in a field that gave them expertise to properly
evaluate the data. Amazingly, the 31,000 scientists is almost double the
number that signed the same petition in 2001.
Even more persuasive, 650 Ph.D. scientists directly involved in climate
research have signed on to the U.S. Senate Minority Report. The report was
given to the UN Conference of the Parties for the Framework Convention on
Climate Change held in December 2008, in Poland. This 231 page report
harshly criticizes the fundamental assumption that greenhouse gas emissions
are the primary cause of global warming in the last quarter of the twentieth
century. This is 12 times more scientists than the 52 who were directly
involved in writing the 2007 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's
so-called "consensus" Summary for Policy Makers. It turns out that an
analysis of the "consensus" of 2500 scientists popularly reported is
patently false. Actually, only 62 reviewed the science chapter, and of
those, only 4 agreed with the entire report. The more a person digs into the
alleged data supporting man-caused global warming, the more it turns out
that it is based on little more than hot air, data manipulation, or computer
models using disproven algorithms.
What is, perhaps, the clearest evidence that nature, not man, caused the
twentieth century warming was the discovery that the oceans are playing a
far greater role than previously recognized. The tropical El Niño and La
Niña phenomena have been well known since the early 1900s, but their
significance was not realized until the late 1900s. As scientists began to
appreciate the impact of each event on climate across the world, they also
began to notice there was a larger oscillation within which El Niños and La
Niñas occurred, extending well beyond the tropics. By 1997, scientists had
named them the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
Like El Niño and La Niña, the PDO and AMO have warm and cold cycles. While
El Niños and La Niñas last only a few months or years, the PDO usually lasts
between 15 and 30 years, and the AMO, 20 to 40 years. In the case of the
PDO, the warm phase has more El Niños while the cold phase has more La
Niñas. Together, the PDO and AMO have a profound affect on earth's climate
and temperature. When compared to earth's temperature, the correlation
between the two and temperature soars dramatically compared to that of CO2
and temperature.
Scientists still do not understand what causes the PDO & AMO, nor do they
know if the relatively high correlation between the two and earth's
temperature is a direct cause and effect relationship, or whether there is
yet another factor that directly affects both the PDO/AMO and temperature.
It may be both.
A growing number of scientists suspect that the driving force is the sun.
The sun was initially discounted, and still is by the alarmists, because the
change in solar irradiance simply does not provide enough energy to warm the
earth. Even so, solar irradiance is somewhat better correlated to
temperature than CO2. However, there is a stronger correlation between the
number of sunspots and earth's temperature. Sunspots are created during
intense solar magnetic activity. The number of sunspots waxes and wanes on
approximately an 11 year cycle, with the maximum number peaking in the
middle of the cycle. The sun's magnetic poles reverse every two cycles, or
22 years, which also seems to have an effect on earth's climate.
When the sun is active with a lot of sunspots, it also has many violent
solar flares and coronal mass ejections. Though the total solar energy
output increases only slightly when the sun is active, the amount of solar
wind increases dramatically. When this solar wind strikes the earth it
interacts with earth's magnetic field, creating the Aurora Borealis and
interacting with the ionosphere where jet streams are formed. Changes in the
jet stream are correlated with El Niños and La Niñas as well as weather
patterns.
Solar winds are also known to push back cosmic radiation originating from
super novas in deep space. There is a statistically significant correlation
between the amount of cosmic radiation entering the earth's surface and the
amount of low elevation cloud formation. The more cosmic radiation the more
low elevation clouds that are formed. The more clouds, the greater the
amount of solar energy that is reflected back into space, and thus the earth
cools. When the sun is very active and there is a lot of solar wind, there
is less cosmic radiation reaching earth, fewer low elevation clouds are
formed reflecting less solar energy, and the earth warms. This relationship
itself can account for most of the warming in the twentieth century.
What concerns a growing number of scientists is that solar cycle number 24,
the next 11 year cycle, should have started in 2007 and yet has not through
September 2009. The sun has had very few sunspots so far, which has, in
their opinion, caused the cooling over the past two years. Worse, the sun is
the quietist it has been for over 100 years. Many solar scientists are
alarmed that it might be heading towards the same type of minimum that
occurred in the 1700 and 1800s, which resulted in what is known as the
Little Ice Age. That's not good, because massive crop failures can be
expected in the shorter growing seasons, along with famines. We are not
there yet, but the fact that an increasing number of scientists are
cautiously discussing the possibility is alarming.
The PDO has shifted into its cold phase, which also means cooler global
temperatures. Are we heading into another cooling cycle? Many scientists
believe so barring another El Niño which occurred in July 2009. It becomes
more likely with every passing day. But studies are inconclusive because so
little of the $4-$5 billion being spent annually on climate research goes to
solar, PDO/AMO, cosmic radiation, or jet stream research. Almost all of it
goes towards CO2 research. Why, you ask? It is simply because global warming
research has become entirely political, not scientific. Well over $50
billion dollars has been spent advancing this political agenda.
One thing scientists have learned is that CO2 is not the primary driver of
climate change. For many alarmists, however, man-caused global warming has
become a religion, and all the facts in the world will never convince them
otherwise. They will continue to chant that the Arctic Ice Cap is destined
to disappear and that the polar bears will become extinct, all because of
CO2 emissions. They will continue their cry that unless onerous carbon cap
and trade schemes are passed soon it will be too late and earth will be
doomed. Yet, they will continue to be wrong about their predictions.
Nonetheless, no one will hold them responsible for the inaccurate data they
broadcast and publish.
For other alarmists, man-caused global warming is a means to making a fast
buck selling newspapers, or air time, or carbon credits; billions of dollars
are at stake. For still other alarmists, the ruse is a means of creating one
more tentacle of global governance - controlling the activities of all
humanity at the global level.
Regardless of the motives of the alarmists, the Obama administration has
promised that his first priority, along with solving the financial crisis
and health care, will be to reduce carbon emissions by 15 percent by 2020
and another 80 percent by 2050. The House has already passed
economy-destroying cap and trade legislation in June, 2009, and the Senate's
bill has just come out. Both depend on technology that is extremely
expensive or doesn't exist at all. If that fails, the Environmental
Protection Agency has already written a plan that will suck trillions of
dollars out of our economy with absolutely no scientific justification
whatsoever.
Why are we hell-bent to implement these economy destroying laws and policies
if the science overwhelming shows that man is not causing global warming?
Simple. It is not about science and reality, it is about power and control.
_________
Dr. Coffman is CEO of Sovereignty International and President of
Environmental Perspectives, Inc. He produced a DVD, "Global Warming,
Emerging Science and Understanding that explains how new science is proving
man-caused warming wrong.
http://www.newswithviews.com/Coffman/mike115.htm |
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