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| ~AGG~... |
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:29 pm |
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http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/obama/2009/11/04/obamas-honeymoon-is-over.html
Obama's Honeymoon is Over
One year after Obama won the presidency, many are questioning him on the
economy and Afghanistan
By Kenneth T. Walsh
Posted November 4, 2009
A year ago, on Nov. 4, 2008, a quarter of a million jubilant supporters
jammed into Chicago's Grant Park to hear the wunderkind of American politics
give his victory speech as the next president of the United States. Barack
Obama did not disappoint. "If there is anyone out there who still doubts
that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if
the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the
power of our democracy, tonight is your answer," Obama said to thunderous
cheers. "In this country, we rise or fall as one nation, as one people," he
added. ". . . America can change. Our nation can be perfected. What we've
already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow."
It was that rarity in politics, a truly historic moment. Voters had elected
the first African-American president, and Obama had constructed a highly
unusual majority coalition propelled by young people and other new voters,
including blacks, Latinos, and a huge swath of Americans eager for change.
And, with his telegenic family and a passel of veterans of past
administrations at his side, he got off to a rousing start. In his first few
weeks, the new president took aggressive action to stimulate the economy,
rescue the financial industry and U.S. automakers, and keep the recession
from turning into another depression. He ordered a drawdown of U.S. forces
in Iraq and beefed up the American contingent in Afghanistan (and is now
considering another surge of 40,000 troops into that troubled country).
Initially, 70 percent of Americans approved of the job he was doing, and his
favorability ratings, which measure how much Americans like him, were even
higher.
As usual with modern presidents, however, the honeymoon did not last. A year
later, much of Obama's initial luster has faded. His job approval ratings
now hover at just over 50 percent, polarization in Washington is as bad as
ever, and much of his agenda has stalled on Capitol Hill. Unemployment is
near 10 percent, provoking widespread anxiety in the middle class. Only 36
percent of Americans say the country is heading in the right direction,
while 52 percent say things are "off on the wrong track," according to the
latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. All this indicates a more pessimistic
attitude than Americans exhibited at the start of the Obama era.
Just as important, the nation is deeply divided over Obama's pushing the
government into more areas of national life. Forty-eight percent say
government "is doing too many things better left to businesses and
individuals," while 46 percent say government should do more to solve
problems, the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found. Many say that Obama's
spending programs, which were enacted by the Democratic majority in Congress
and have created a $1.4 trillion budget deficit this year alone, are
profligate. Most Americans still like their 48-year-old leader as an
individual, considering him a good family man and role model, according to
the polls, but charisma and good intentions are no longer enough.
Increasingly, the public wants results.
"The bloom is off the rose," says Frank Donatelli, former political director
for President Ronald Reagan and currently chairman of GOPAC, a conservative
political action committee. "He has fundamentally misread the desires of the
country." Obama was elected to fix the economy and "grow jobs," Donatelli
says, "but he believes he was elected to grow government and change
healthcare."
Others have a similarly expansive critique. "Promises made, promises
kept-and that's the question that a lot of people are having to grapple with
as they deal with unemployment, as they deal with job loss, as they deal
with losing their homes and bank closures and government takeover of
automobile industries and banks and all that stuff," says Michael Steele,
chairman of the Republican National Committee. "And I think a lot of people
right now are sitting there going, 'Is this really what we bargained for?' "
Steele adds that the country is turning against Obama. "The hope that
everyone had about an Obama presidency has turned into a frustration about
the direction that presidency wants to take the country," he says.
The downward slide can be reversed, of course, and Obama advisers say things
aren't as bad as critics suggest. "The American people clearly wanted
something different-and they wanted change, and I think from the president
they're getting that change," says White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs.
"Now, I give a lot of credit to the American people. They're always way
ahead of this town. The American people get that this isn't all going to
happen overnight and it's going to take time to change the situation that we
got into. So I think that's a good thing." Two positive signs came last
week. The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product rose
at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, after a year of
contraction, and the administration reported that its stimulus had created
or saved 650,000 jobs.
But Obama also suffered political setbacks Tuesday when voters spurned
Democratic gubernatorial candidates Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Creigh
Deeds in Virginia, and chose Republicans Chris Christie and Bob McD.,
respectively. Both Democrats had been strongly backed by the president, who
carried both states last year. Better news came in upstate New York, where
Democrat Bill Owens won a special congressional election over conservative
Doug Hoffman. Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava withdrew over the weekend
and endorsed Owens.
White House strategists admit that the electorate's patience is limited, but
they argue that if Congress enacts the overhaul of the healthcare system
that is Obama's top priority this fall, he will end the year with a big
achievement, and his ratings will climb. This would, under the White House
theory, enhance his image as an effective leader and create momentum for
other initiatives down the line, such as Obama's plans to limit global
warming, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, promote energy conservation,
bolster the financial industry, and revamp the immigration laws.
"We're closer on comprehensive health insurance reform than we've been in a
hundred years," says White House senior adviser David Axelrod. "Seven
presidents have tried; seven presidents have failed. He has the opportunity
to get it done." Noting Obama's decision to also push for major legislation
on energy, education, and other concerns, Axelrod adds: "These are enormous
issues that he's taken on at a very difficult time and he's advanced them.
By any objective yardstick, he's achieved a lot in the first 10 months." And
Axelrod doesn't think Obama's approval ratings tell the whole story. "No
doubt there were high hopes and expectations, and I think he is still very
highly regarded and people see him in positive terms and hopeful terms."
In foreign affairs, the problems are also immense and in some ways getting
worse. Leading the list is the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, where
the level of violence is increasing. Eight Americans died in bomb attacks
this week, and an additional dozen people were killed in a brazen assault on
a United Nations guesthouse in Kabul. A resurgent Taliban is making fresh
gains across the country, and Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the senior commander
of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, is asking for 40,000 more troops to
stem the tide.
Obama has yet to decide what to do and has been meeting every few days with
his "war cabinet" to reconsider strategy. This has triggered strong
criticism from Republicans who say he should have immediately approved
McChrystal's request. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the GOP presidential
nominee last year, said this week that the time is long past for Obama to
have made a decision and that he is jeopardizing American soldiers' lives by
not sending in reinforcements. But Obama has stood firm against the
advocates of quick judgment, insisting that it's best to take whatever time
is needed to get the decision right.
Also giving Obama some breathing room is the fact that voters rarely list
Afghanistan at the top of their list of concerns. "Politically," says
Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, "he has all the latitude in the world,
because the public doesn't know what the right thing to do is and the public
knows how complicated this is." The death toll and costs have been
relatively small compared with the extremely controversial war in Iraq.
"Iraq was black and white, depending on what side you were on," Garin says.
"Afghanistan is all about shades of gray."
But, again, the country is split. Forty-seven percent support sending more
troops into Afghanistan; 43 percent oppose it. And some Democrats see an
opportunity for Obama and his party to demonstrate their savvy and
toughness, even though only about one third of Democrats support escalation.
"There is still a suspicion that we are soft on defense and not willing to
use power to protect national security," says Will Marshall, president of
the Progressive Policy Institute, a think tank for centrist Democrats.
Obama's decision on Afghanistan is "an opportunity to cement among the
public the notion that Democrats can be trusted to protect national
security," Marshall says, observing that "the whole drama of the Obama
presidency is to do big things and at the same time hold together a
center-left coalition. This will be one of his toughest tests."
GOP strategist Donatelli sees the choice in dire terms. "If Afghanistan
fails on his watch, after he proclaimed it the central front in the war on
terror, he will be another Jimmy Carter," a failed president with an image
of weakness, Donatelli says.
But Obama advocates say he will get all the big decisions right in the end,
and he tells friends that he won't be deterred from pushing for ways to
transform the country in a fundamental sense, with government activism as a
principal tool. Obama still feels the same way he did on election night a
year ago, according to his press secretary. "He didn't want to wake up four
or eight years later looking at the television with the country facing the
same old problems," Gibbs says, "so I think [he is] transformational in the
sense that we were finally going to address things like our economy, that we
were going to address things like healthcare and energy that we had put off
dealing with because of the size of the problems."
Obama's ambitions and perseverance were on display this week when he signed
the $680 billion National Defense Authorization Act, even though it didn't
contain all the reforms he asked for. Obama said it was the best he could do
for the moment but promised not to give up. "I'm pleased to say that we have
proved that change is possible," he declared. "It may not come quickly or
all at once, but if you push hard enough, it does come eventually." He will
have plenty of other opportunities to alter procurement practices and reduce
military waste and inefficiency. But aides say this message applies to his
agenda across the board. "What people have learned about Barack Obama as
president is that he was serious when he said he would bring change to
Washington and address the big challenges facing the nation," says White
House Communications Director Anita Dunn. And he has only just begun. |
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