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| amicus_curious... |
 Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 8:21 pm |
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Guest
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As reported at
http://www.linux.com/news/enterprise/biz-enterprise/135546:linux-succeeds-across-the-board
"Installed base statistics are always interesting to
| examine because they can allow you to predict when
| the Linux installed base will exceed the Windows
| installed base provided certain growth conditions
| hold. The Linux client installed base is growing at
| a CAGR (2007-2012) of 18.6%; whereas, Windows client
| installed base is growing at a 9.9% clip."
If we set that up as a sort of equation to see when Windows, with a 99%
share might succumb to Linux client installed base, with a 1% current share,
we can solve for the amount of time Microsoft has left to dominate client
platform software, assuming that the march of Linux continues at its current
high rate.. We just solve for N where:
LinuxBase * (1 + CAGRLinux)**N = WindowsBase * (1 + CAGRWindows)**N, which
is where the two are equal in installed base.
Cleaning this up and using the above numbers, we have:
99 = ((1.186)/(1.099))**N
or
1.079 ** N = 99 which can be calculated as N = log(99) / log (1.079) or
N = 60.43 years
Now that is assumming, of course, that the rates continue unabated by any
nefarious acts by Microsoft using their billions to thwart the normal march
of time. One interesting fallout from this exercise is that the Windows
business, growing at a meager 1.099 CAGR per the study, will be some 300
times greater than it is today, using the same predictive logic. That
sounds like a boon for Microsoft in the little time that it has left to
dominate personal computing. They better start making hay while the sun is
still shining! |
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| DFS... |
| Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:41 pm |
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Guest
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amicus_curious wrote:
Quote: "DFS" <nospam at (no spam) dfs_.com> wrote in message news:hbhm7t$gls$1 at (no spam) aioe.org...
amicus_curious wrote:
N = 60.43 years
In the face of the Linux juggernaut, oblivion is just around the
corner for Microsoft...
So the Year Of The Linux Revolution is 2070! And I'll be the oldest
Wintroll alive.
My you're looking dapper for a man of your age, amicus! |
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