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are too many people doing marathons that really should...

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John Hurley...
Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:30 pm
Guest
Some sad news from Detroit marathon apparently 3 fatalities during the
event. Condolences to the families and friends of any of the runners
involved.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/10/18/michigan.marathon.deaths/index.html
 
pithydoug...
Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 5:18 pm
Guest
On Oct 18, 7:30 pm, John Hurley <johnbhur... at (no spam) sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Quote:
Some sad news from Detroit marathon apparently 3 fatalities during the
event.  Condolences to the families and friends of any of the runners
involved.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/10/18/michigan.marathon.deaths/index.html

From reading the Detroit paper the three died within minutes of each
other and a wide variety of ages. I'm not usually suspicious
but ...................

Suppose some sick person(s) decided to add some elixir to a few
cups. I guess we will have to wait for the autopsies.

-D
 
aeiouy...
Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 7:51 pm
Guest
"John Hurley" <johnbhurley at (no spam) sbcglobal.net> wrote in message
news:68025b80-3d60-436a-801e-66b49fda6315 at (no spam) m11g2000yqf.googlegroups.com...
Quote:
Some sad news from Detroit marathon apparently 3 fatalities during the
event. Condolences to the families and friends of any of the runners
involved.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/10/18/michigan.marathon.deaths/index.html

To answer your question; no I don't believe so and they were doing a half
marathon which makes it even rarer

http://www.detnews.com/article/20091018/METRO/910180321/1435/Three-runners-die-in-Free-Press/Flagstar-half-marathon
 
Michelle...
Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 8:24 pm
Guest
In article <1_WdnbldcZy-W0bXnZ2dnUVZ_j2dnZ2d at (no spam) giganews.com>,
"aeiouy" <aeiouy at (no spam) vowels.com> wrote:

Quote:
To answer your question; no I don't believe so and they were doing a
half marathon which makes it even rarer

I think that the most important thing in the article is "Running studies
have shown 1 in every 50,000-88,000 marathon finishers die".

I think that the sentence is poorly worded because if they finish they
didn't die during the race. I think what they meant is that there is one
death for every 50,000 to 88,000 finishers.

--
26.2 Because I can
 
rick++...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:57 am
Guest
I posted that claculation here a few years ago.

Annual US death rate is 8.27 per thousand: one in 120.
8766 hours in a year.
Average marathon time is 4 hours.
One chance in 262,000 of dying randomly in 4 hours.
 
rick++...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:04 am
Guest
Slightly more accurate numbers:

Average 2007 marathon time was 4.7 hours.
That would be 1 in 224,000 marathon runners.

Also in 20007 403,000 completed certified marathong in the USA.
I presume more than that started a marathon.

So on random, we are talkign about two deaths a year.
With three in Detori and one in Baltimore this month
is above odds.
 
rick++...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:05 am
Guest
Described as "healthy":

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jC87b8dqot_-Uku5X99x2tBdSD4gD9BEACGO3
 
bradipo missile...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:32 am
Guest
On 19 Ott, 19:58, Michelle <miche... at (no spam) michelle.org> wrote:

Quote:
- the doctor: is making money (from 30 to 50 bucks each certificate)

If I had to pay $30 in addition to the race fee to run a race, I'd be
running fewer races; I suspect that many others would be the same way.  

Because of my poor english I didn't explain it correctly: the
certificate is valid for 365 days, so you pay 30$ once a year.

Quote:
- the runner: is obliged to have his own health checked (standard
exams: urinalysis, electrocardiogram under effort, spirometry and
overall examination) at least once a year

It all depends on what the doctor wants done in order to write the letter..  

The tests are standard because it is a complex medical protocol. It is
not up to the doctor to decide.

Quote:
- race organizers, in case of fatalities, can claim that they have
taken all precautions by asking a certification.

Not needed; every race entry has the runner sign a disclaimer of
responsibility.

It's the same here in Italy, but this disclaimer is additional to the
medical certificate. Actually, without the certificate you are not
allowed to join any athletics club or group.

BM
 
Tony S....
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:49 pm
Guest
"Tony S." <noemail at (no spam) forme.org> wrote in message
news:hbiad3$1ql$1 at (no spam) news.eternal-september.org...
Quote:
"Melinda Shore" <shore at (no spam) panix.com> wrote in message
news:hbi5n5$m2h$1 at (no spam) panix2.panix.com...
In article <hbi4vd$bvu$1 at (no spam) news.america.net>,
rvfulltime <rvfulltime.nospaam at (no spam) isp.nospaam.com> wrote:
Stop and think about the numbers. Say you have a city of 20,000
people,
equivalent to a big foot race.

That strikes me as an inapt comparison. The people running
races are not chosen randomly from the larger population,
although I suppose the original question implies that that
might be too close to the truth. But seriously, you don't
have people dying of old age during races, you don't have
people in the very final stages of a terminal disease
running races, you don't have premature babies running
races, etc. On average people who are entering races should
be healthier (for whatever definition of "health") than
people at random.
--
Melinda Shore - Software longa, hardware brevis - shore at (no spam) panix.com

Prouder than ever to be a member of the reality-based community

What if we look at it by age and risk of heart disease only as a risk
factor. Let's assume that marathon runners are divided equally between
the ages of 25 and 65 (of course they are not). Between those ages,
according to the CDC, 1615 of every 100,000 people will die every year
(2006 #s) from heart disease or 1.6%. But in any 5 hour window of
time, the risk should only be then 1.6%*5/(365*24) = 0.0009%. (And of
course probably not every window of time is of equal risk).
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_14.pdf
(table 9)

Using Michelle's numbers, if 1 in 50,000 (or 88,000) people will die
in a marathon and they are dying from heart disease (for argument's
sake), that's 0.002% and 0.0011% respectively, or 217 and 123 times
you'll more likely die in a marathon than the raw chance you'll die
during any 5 hour time window, from heart disease. Of course marathon
runners are not your typical population, but you would think they
would be healthier than the typical population of all 25-65 year olds.

I screwed up trying to look too fast. Only 331 people of 100,000 between
the ages of 25 and 65 die from heart disease every year. That makes the
marathon risk look even worse. 5 hour window risk = 0.00019%. or
1056/600 times more likely to die during a marathon, as argued above.

-Tony

Quote:
To me it makes sense that there would be an increased risk, given that
you're stressing your cardiovascular system highly over a relatively
long period of time. I believe Noakes makes the argument that one
important reason to have a relatively high volume of base training for
a marathon is to make the heart strong enough to endure the event
without damage.

-Tony

 
Michelle...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:58 pm
Guest
In article <hbicc2$k2u$1 at (no spam) news.eternal-september.org>,
"Tony S." <noemail at (no spam) forme.org> wrote:

Quote:
I screwed up trying to look too fast. Only 331 people of 100,000 between
the ages of 25 and 65 die from heart disease every year.

What about other medical causes? (Exclude, of course, murders, suicides,
accidents, etc.)

--
26.2 Because I can
 
I2Run...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:07 pm
Guest
doug wrote:

Quote:
From reading the Detroit paper the three died within minutes of each
other and a wide variety of ages. I'm not usually suspicious
but ...................
All three were running HM and were *healthy*, makes you wonder:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091019/ap_on_sp_ot/ath_free_press_marathon_deaths_3
 
Michelle...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:54 pm
Guest
In article
<3c8cf6c3-92ac-42f1-b185-409bbbfd9423 at (no spam) l33g2000vbi.googlegroups.com>,
bradipo missile <azatti at (no spam) inwind.it> wrote:

Quote:
Because of my poor english I didn't explain it correctly: the
certificate is valid for 365 days, so you pay 30$ once a year.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Quote:
- the runner: is obliged to have his own health checked (standard
exams: urinalysis, electrocardiogram under effort, spirometry and
overall examination) at least once a year

It all depends on what the doctor wants done in order to write the
letter.  

The tests are standard because it is a complex medical protocol. It is
not up to the doctor to decide.

We're having trouble in the US just getting affordable medical care for
all, and to persuade people to eat healthy and stop smoking. Something
like that would never fly here.

Quote:
Not needed; every race entry has the runner sign a disclaimer of
responsibility.

It's the same here in Italy, but this disclaimer is additional to the
medical certificate. Actually, without the certificate you are not
allowed to join any athletics club or group.

You don't have to join a group or club here in order to enter a race.

--
26.2 Because I can
 
Dot...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:21 pm
Guest
pithydoug wrote:

Quote:
On Oct 18, 7:30 pm, John Hurley <johnbhur... at (no spam) sbcglobal.net> wrote:

Some sad news from Detroit marathon apparently 3 fatalities during the
event. Condolences to the families and friends of any of the runners
involved.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/10/18/michigan.marathon.deaths/index.html


From reading the Detroit paper the three died within minutes of each
other and a wide variety of ages. I'm not usually suspicious
but ...................

Suppose some sick person(s) decided to add some elixir to a few
cups. I guess we will have to wait for the autopsies.

-D

They've completed the autopsies and still not sure - at least according
to DFP. Having tissue and blood samples analyzed. Of course, they also
said it was in marathon, not the HM which is where they actually
occurred, so as with all newspaper articles, truth might be different.
Two between miles 11-12 and one after the finish line.
http://tinyurl.com/yl73rm7

Dot

--
"You’ll never hear me say I beat the Peak. I’ve run up there pretty
fast, and that mountain doesn’t care. I’ll never conquer the Peak." -
Matt Carpenter
 
pithydoug...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:23 pm
Guest
On Oct 19, 1:58 pm, Michelle <miche... at (no spam) michelle.org> wrote:
Quote:
In article

If I had to pay $30 in addition to the race fee to run a race, I'd be
running fewer races; I suspect that many others would be the same way.  
That means less money for the sponsoring organizations, nearby hotels,
taxis, busses, etc.


Question for Europeans how long is the health certificate good for?
The thought of say, a yearly exam, would be a very worthwhile safety
check and all around good preventive medicine. Some people think
running makes them invincible and forgo any exams.

-D
 
Melinda Shore...
Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:26 pm
Guest
In article <hbicc2$k2u$1 at (no spam) news.eternal-september.org>,
Tony S. <noemail at (no spam) forme.org> wrote:
Quote:
I screwed up trying to look too fast. Only 331 people of 100,000 between
the ages of 25 and 65 die from heart disease every year. That makes the
marathon risk look even worse. 5 hour window risk = 0.00019%. or
1056/600 times more likely to die during a marathon, as argued above.

I think limiting it to heart disease is pretty narrow.
Also, I'd guess (off the top of my head) that there are
certain things that are somewhat more likely during a
marathon than during, uh, not-a-marathon, like hyponatremia.

I'll absolutely buy that people who go into a marathon with
an inadequate base or inadequatefitness are more likely to
croak than people who aren't running a marathon. I'm not a
fan of bucket-list marathoning. But I think comparisons to
human-population-wide mortality rates would be misleading
and not very informative, since there are certain groups who
are both less likely to run a marathon and more likely to
die.
--
Melinda Shore - Software longa, hardware brevis - shore at (no spam) panix.com

Prouder than ever to be a member of the reality-based community
 
 
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