"Melinda Shore" <shore at (no spam) panix.com> wrote in message
news:hbi5n5$m2h$1 at (no spam) panix2.panix.com...
In article <hbi4vd$bvu$1 at (no spam) news.america.net>,
rvfulltime <rvfulltime.nospaam at (no spam) isp.nospaam.com> wrote:
Stop and think about the numbers. Say you have a city of 20,000
people,
equivalent to a big foot race.
That strikes me as an inapt comparison. The people running
races are not chosen randomly from the larger population,
although I suppose the original question implies that that
might be too close to the truth. But seriously, you don't
have people dying of old age during races, you don't have
people in the very final stages of a terminal disease
running races, you don't have premature babies running
races, etc. On average people who are entering races should
be healthier (for whatever definition of "health") than
people at random.
--
Melinda Shore - Software longa, hardware brevis - shore at (no spam) panix.com
Prouder than ever to be a member of the reality-based community
What if we look at it by age and risk of heart disease only as a risk
factor. Let's assume that marathon runners are divided equally between
the ages of 25 and 65 (of course they are not). Between those ages,
according to the CDC, 1615 of every 100,000 people will die every year
(2006 #s) from heart disease or 1.6%. But in any 5 hour window of
time, the risk should only be then 1.6%*5/(365*24) = 0.0009%. (And of
course probably not every window of time is of equal risk).
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_14.pdf
(table 9)
Using Michelle's numbers, if 1 in 50,000 (or 88,000) people will die
in a marathon and they are dying from heart disease (for argument's
sake), that's 0.002% and 0.0011% respectively, or 217 and 123 times
you'll more likely die in a marathon than the raw chance you'll die
during any 5 hour time window, from heart disease. Of course marathon
runners are not your typical population, but you would think they
would be healthier than the typical population of all 25-65 year olds.